Where Do We Go From Here? U.S. Cities with Uncertain Futures

By Nicole Dunn, TPMA Senior Project Consultant

Forbes recently published an article by Henry DeVries titled “How to Market a Region Facing an Uncertain Future” which reviewed the book Invention & Re-Invention: The Evolution of San Diego’s Innovation Economy. Authors of the book, Mary Lindenstein Walshok and Abraham J. Shragge, contend that “while geographic advantages rate high, factors such as the core values of early founders, the ability to steer new paths to growth, and how a city cultivates its resources and leadership are baselines for any city’s predicted level of prosperity.”

I’ve thought about this a lot as we travel around the country, meeting community leaders, job seekers, city managers, and a host of other people who truly care about the places they live. Why, then, do some places become tech hubs or hotbeds of innovation, and other (equally accessible and equally beautiful) places struggle to address generational poverty, economic stagnation and high unemployment?

There are no clear answers to these questions (yet), but DeVries’ article, which focuses on how to market communities facing an uncertain future, made me wonder – which of our communities are most uncertain? One way to measure that is to look at the middle of the pack, at those communities that have neither thrived nor collapsed since 2009. They rarely get mentioned in a world of top 10 best and worst lists, so I think they deserve a mention.

Here are the top 10 MSAs, by population, who had neither a net growth, nor net decline, in total jobs from 2009 to 2013 based on 2013.4 Complete data from EMSI Analyst. Their total job growth was 0%, so I’d argue their futures hang in the balance, and small changes could go a long way toward tipping them to the side of growth. They are:

1. Wichita, KS
2. Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
3. Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX
4. Salem, OR
5. Fort Smith, AR-OK
6. Huntington-Ashland, WV-KY-OH
7. Norwich-New London, CT
8. Olympia, WA
9. Joplin, MO
10. Panama City-Lynn Haven-Panama City Beach, FL

To market themselves effectively, DeVries recommends that communities take risks, cultivate talent, listen to a wide range of stakeholders and build partnerships.

I would add two other points:

• Communities need to understand what they have to sell and what kind of community they want to be.  Without understanding existing assets and a creating a vision for the future, it will be difficult for communities to know what risks to take, which kind of talent to cultivate, which wide range of stakeholders to listen to, and what kind of partnerships are necessary to build.
• Embracing regionalism and planning together is key.  A focus on how one city can edge out its neighbor is a distraction from the kind of progress that brings long-term economic growth.

With solid, data-driven planning and good leadership, I think these MSAs can reroute their futures from uncertain to bright.